Ray Dalio演讲笔记

Ray Dalio前一阵应华尔街见闻的邀请访华，做了个演讲和对话。不得不说，我对于嘉宾们抛的问题是失望的，太泛泛了，跟大学讲座里的提问水平差不多。即使别人说包凡的那段质量很高，我也觉得相当一般。

这里总结一下他前面的演讲部分，还是很不错的。

经济走势四个影响因素

1. Productivity 生产力
2. 短期债务周期，通常5~8年。
   Recession时，Economic weakness危害>Inflation;
   于是央行加油，拉消费，直至> Capacity growth;
   于是央行加息，减消费 。
3. 长期债务周期，通常75~100年。Debt > Income
4. Politics.

两个政策工具 Two Levers

1. Tightly monitor interest rate
2. Fiscal tool/policy

三个重要平衡

1. Debt growth is inline with the income growth that is required to service debt.
   债务增速与债务所需增速相当.
2. Economic capacity utilization is either too high or too low.
   经济产能利用率，既不太高（导致inflation)，也不太低(recession太久）。
3. Projected return of equities> * of bonds > * of cash, by appropriate risk premiums. (风险溢价)

Investment Principles

1. Theoretical Value = Present value of future cash flow = Expected future cash flow/Discount rate(折现率）
2. Actual Value = Spending/Quantity sold(总价/总量).
   需要理解who's buying, who's selling, and why，很重要。
   
3. Asset classes will outperform cash over the long term; however, the outperformace of the asset class over cash (i.e. beta) cannot be very positive for too long.

Inflation, real growth and real interest rates are the biggest drivers of what asset classes perform best.

Diversification can reduce risk more than it reduces returns so it improves return-to-risk ratio.

Every investment is a return stream. Either in form of beta(Asset class return) or alpha(Active decision, 本质上是个零和游戏).

Holy grail of investment: 15 or more good and uncorrelated(很重要) return streams.

Systemizing your decision making. 然后反馈，验证，改进，循环。